Apple’s long-rumored foldable iPhone might finally debut next year—but analysts say its sky-high price tag could turn the dream device into a tough sell. According to brokerage firm Jefferies, Apple’s upcoming iPhone 18 Fold could carry a price of around $2,000, matching the Samsung Galaxy Z Fold 7, and that might be more than most consumers are willing to pay.
In a research note released Friday, Jefferies downgraded Apple’s stock from Hold to Underperform, warning investors that market expectations for the company’s next generation of iPhones are “unrealistically high.” The analysts argue that Wall Street has already priced in strong iPhone 17 demand and is now overestimating future sales for the upcoming iPhone 18 lineup — particularly the new foldable model. As a result, Jefferies slightly cut its price target for Apple shares to $205.16, down from $205.82.
The downgrade briefly sent Apple’s stock lower on Friday, dropping as much as $3.18 before closing at $258.02, still within striking distance of its all-time high of $260.10. Despite that resilience, Jefferies believes that Apple’s valuation already assumes an “overly bullish iPhone outlook,” which could lead to disappointment if next year’s devices fail to spark a major upgrade cycle.
The firm also cautioned that the iPhone 17’s early success—boosted by features like the 120Hz ProMotion display now included even on the base model—may not necessarily carry over to future devices. “Without true breakthrough innovations, strong replacement-cycle demand based on lower prices isn’t sustainable,” Jefferies analysts said, warning that margins could tighten in 2026 and beyond.
As for the iPhone 18 Fold, Jefferies believes its high price could become its biggest obstacle. While foldables have gained attention in recent years, their market share remains small compared to traditional smartphones. Even Samsung’s flagship foldables, which dominate the category, sell in limited volumes due to their premium pricing. Apple’s entry into this space is expected to raise the bar in terms of design and performance, but at $2,000, many consumers might decide the innovation simply isn’t worth the cost.
Adding to those concerns, Jefferies noted that Apple’s ultra-thin iPhone Air has yet to gain traction among buyers — suggesting that new design directions don’t automatically translate into mainstream appeal. “Investors should be cautious about assuming the same hype will follow Apple’s first foldable,” the firm wrote. “At this price point, any bullish stance on the device looks risky.”
Despite Jefferies’ cautious tone, not all analysts share that skepticism. Earlier this week, Seaport Research Partners gave Apple a Buy rating with a price target of $310, nearly 20% higher than current levels. Analyst Jay Goldberg said Apple has “become better at monetizing its user base,” pointing to the company’s growing ecosystem of services and wearables.
Still, the broader sentiment remains mixed. Out of 50 firms tracked by FactSet, 31 rate Apple a Buy, 17 a Hold, and just 2 — including Jefferies — a Sell. With Apple shares hovering near record highs, the company’s next big product launch will be closely watched to see whether the excitement around a foldable iPhone can match expectations — or fall flat under the weight of its $2,000 price tag.
As the saying on Wall Street goes: “Buy the rumor, sell the news.” For Apple, that might prove true once again when the iPhone 18 Fold finally unfolds next year.
